It has been said that certain books 'choose' us. It cannot be more true while I was walking in the always interesting streets of Berkeley, California.
I have always been a Barnes and Noble guy when it comes to bookstores. But this one bookstore that I have passed by at least half a dozen times have long intrigued me because of its laid-back,welcoming exterior design.
So I came in and got some books to read for the rest of the afternoon.(I think 5 hours isn't enough time to spend in a bookstore )
After a few hours of reading random titles I decided to check some business books. The store had about, give or take, 30 books about business. Not a very popular subject.
Then I saw a title that caught my Attention, " Timing The Real Estate Market" the subheading was,"The Campbell Method: A proven system for buying and selling real estate for maximum profits". Honestly, I didn't want to open it. 'You're in vacation Sir, no business ideas/problems/talks for the next 48 hours!' that was my inner voice talking to me. Plus, the title of the book sounded too good to be true.With much hesitation, I opened the book. The dedication read, "To the Millions of home buyers and sellers who-every year- regretfully say:
" If I had only bought (or sold) a year or two earlier....I would have made a killing."
Hmm interesting. Without even thinking I can name at least 5 people who is saying that same phrase.
This is what urged me to read further. I found this in the Introduction.
" The Campbell Method asks you to look at the market objectively, not emotionally. It requires that you step away from your own personal beliefs,opinions and biases about what you would like the market to do, and focus instead on what the market is telling you to do."
If you have been reading this blog, or if you have met us personally and have asked us questions about the market. The above introduction from the book pretty much summarizes our belief about the market. "Study the facts, instead of listening to your friend's advice on investing in real estate, listen to the market. Do what the market tells you."
To tell you honestly,There have been times when I felt unsure and uneasy with how I approach the market or the things I tell people when they ask me about the market. It can be a lonely journey .
But Joe and I have always stood by the principle of " Studying the market is 100% better than listening to the 'experts' opinion" Maybe because I was once in that position (Losing in the Real Estate market). And I pray to God I never make the same mistake again. It is not a fun place to be. Also, by studying the market (with the help of my friend Dan) I have been blessed to be the one to urge my family and a friend to cut our losses short- "folks, its time to sell our investments!" This was in summer of 2006. No one in any major news networks (as far i can remember) warned the people about the possible dangers of the impending crash in the real estate market. Everybody thought we were crazy, the neighbors of the homes we sold were quite unhappy by our reduction in prices. We had no choice. The market was crystal clear in its warning of the impending crash. We lost a huge amount money by doing this. We could've lost twice as much if we have waited longer.
Studying the market has surely been a great help for me and many others.
That is why this book is going to be a big part of this blog. I have been reading it and I am planning on using the principles.
The author gives Five Key Vital Sign Indicators that track the trend of the real estate market:
1) Existing Home Sales
2) New Home Building Permits
3) Mortgage Loan Defaults
4) Foreclosure Sales
5) Interest Rates
I have posted some articles about some of these points. But I plan on digging deeper.
Just in case anyone is interested in the book. You can find more information here.
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