Reno Real Estate Report: 1993-2005

Reno real estate market: 1993-2005

"History shows us that when a real estate bear market bottoms out it looks more like an L-shaped pattern.  Gradually going up in value."

Hello, My name is Ian Mariano.  I am the head of market research for Joe Salcedo Group.  Our broker is Chase International.

Welcome.

In this video I aim to do two things.

1. To show you the appreciation of home prices in Reno from 1993-2005. .

2. I want to give you a realistic guess on how much your home would appreciate in the coming years. We will base this 'guess' from the 13-year history of the Reno real estate market.
   
   I have been asked a number of times on what I think will happen in the Reno real estate market market after it reaches a bottom. Though no one exactly knows what the future holds. I do believe that  History gives us clues. And I want to show that to you today.

I've also heard people say  that once the real estate market reaches a bottom, right after that, it will go up again(Forming a V-shaped patter) similar to what we've seen happen in 2002-2005.  In my opinion this is a very dangerous assumption.  The history of the real estate market does not support this theory.   History shows us that when a real estate bear market bottoms out it looks more like an L-shaped pattern.  Gradually going up in value.

Let's look at the numbers.  Here you have the Median Sales Price  for Reno,Sparks & the North Valleys. By the way,This data was produced by the Bureau of business and economic research.

Notice that from 1993-2001 we didn't have very big numbers. Six percent increase in 1993 by 2001 we saw a 4.1 % increase in home values.  And it's the same story with Reno's neighboring cities of Sparks, North Valleys. In fact when I computed the average home appreciation from 1993- 2001.  All three cities were in the 4% growth/year . But something happened from 2002-2005. we went up three hundred percent across the board.

In a span of four years  we soared to 18-20%/ home appreciation per year in  Reno, Sparks & North Valleys.  From four percent to an unprecedented twenty percent in the top of the market.

So for the question of the day. Where are we right now? Since 2005- to the present, as many of you know that the market is going downhill.  We have yet to find a bottom. But once we reach that lowest point.  It is dangerous to live from this position. Meaning,  We won't be having 18-20% appreciation in the next ten years minimum.  It is more wise to expect our homes to go up in the 4-7% range per year. And even this won't happen right after the market bottoms out. History shows us that It takes a while to go up again even to 4-7% /year.


For more information, you can find us at www.renohomeblog.com

 

Comments

[Mike V.]

Wuhah!
goood job you guys.
and nice office

I'm still debating on what area of Reno should i settle in. i'll let you know what happens.

[Julia Arenas]

I'm here to keep my promise :) 5 comments about the site.

1. This time is the only time I've stayed more than 5 mins on the site...because I saw you on video hehehehe! It was nice to hear and see you in action! You still sound the same. The video encourages people to stay on the site.

2. I know you're a real estate group and of course you have every right to post facts and figures, but I feel, there's too much raw info on the site...there's a way to visually edit research info so that even those who aren't knowledgeable about your field can somehow grasp what you are trying to present.

3. Layout can be improved. So that people pause to appreciate it when they arrive on your site.

4. A balance of text and images can be maintained, super text heavy ito. And It is encouraged to only vary between 2 and 3 type faces and sizes so that it looks less cluttered.

5. That guy presenting Reno Sparks on You Tube, who still sounds Filipino, is a friend I miss dearly...sana makauwi ka na even for awhile! :)

[Ian Mariano]

You are a promise keeper indeed *wink*

Who am I supposed to get advice for the blog's design than the heralded 'Julia Arenas'.

Nice to hear: "The video encourages people to stay on the site."

Hey, your five points are all taken somewhat painfully yet gratefully as well.

I miss you too Julia. Hope all is well. I will see you soon, i just know.

[Ian Mariano]

Mike,

Keep debating with yourself and if you can with other people who knows something about the market.

This is the key to deeper understanding.

But once you do get an understanding you will need to make a decision whether to wait another year or whatever. Be warned that you will still feel un-easy when making the decision but decide you must.

Thanks for the kind comments Mike.

Good luck!

[Julia Arenas]

Only read these replies now, oh my painfully? Hehe, apologies, only wanted to help with my words. Maybe it would have been better if I had emailed my 5 comments so not everyone could view them. Overall though, good work. The involvement of those behind the site looks pretty active now. God bless!

[Ian Mariano]

No apologies my friend.

We are working out your inputs.

Thanks Julia